2016 California Democratic primary
2016 California Democratic primary
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The 2016 California Democratic presidential primary was held on June 7 in the U.S. state of California as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party's primaries in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states. Additionally, the Democratic Party held North Dakota caucuses the same day.
Contents
1 Opinion polling
2 Results
2.1 Results by county
3 Analysis
4 References
Opinion polling[edit]
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary results | June 7, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 53.1% | Bernie Sanders 46.0% | Others 0.9% |
| CBS News/YouGov[2] Margin of error: ±5.0% | May 31-June 3, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 49% | Bernie Sanders 47% | Others / Undecided 4% |
| American Research Group[3] Margin of error: ± -% | May 31 – June 2, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 48% | Bernie Sanders 47% | Others / Undecided 5% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[4] Margin of error: ±4.2% | May 29–31, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 49% | Bernie Sanders 47% | Others / Undecided 4% |
| Field[5] Margin of error: ±4.1% | May 26–31, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 45% | Bernie Sanders 43% | Others / Undecided 12% |
| USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[6] Margin of error: ± 2.9% | May 19–31, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 49% | Bernie Sanders 39% | Others / Undecided 13% |
| SurveyUSA[7] Margin of error: ±% | May 19–22, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 57% | Bernie Sanders 39% | Undecided 4% |
| PPIC[8] Margin of error: ±5.7% | May 13–22, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 46% | Bernie Sanders 44% | Undecided 10% |
| Hoover Institution State Poll[9] Margin of error: ±3.47% | May 4–16, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 51% | Bernie Sanders 38% | Others / Undecided 11% |
| Sextant (D)/Capitol Weekly[10] Margin of error: ±2.3% | April 28-May 1, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 49% | Bernie Sanders 39% | Others / Undecided 12% |
| SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG[11] Margin of error: ± % | April 27–30, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 57% | Bernie Sanders 38% | Others / Undecided 6% |
| FOX News[12] Margin of error: ± 4% | April 18–21, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 48% | Bernie Sanders 46% | Others / Undecided 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[13] Margin of error: ± 4.5% | April 13–15, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 52% | Bernie Sanders 40% | Others / Undecided 8% |
| Gravis Marketing[14] Margin of error: ± 3.4% | April 7–10, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 47% | Bernie Sanders 41% | Others / Undecided 12% |
| Field[15] Margin of error: ± 4.0% | March 24 - April 4, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 47% | Bernie Sanders 41% | Others / Undecided 12% |
| SurveyUSA[16] Margin of error: ± 3.6% | March 30 - April 3, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 53% | Bernie Sanders 39% | Others / Undecided 8% |
| USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[17] Margin of error: ± 3.7% | March 16–23, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 47% | Bernie Sanders 36% | Others / Undecided 17% |
| PPIC[18] Margin of error: ± 6.2% | March 6–15, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 48% | Bernie Sanders 41% | Others / Undecided 11% |
| Field Poll[19] Margin of error: ± 5.6% | January 6, 2016 | Hillary Clinton 46% | Bernie Sanders 35% | Martin O'Malley 1% Undecided 18% |
Polls in 2015
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Field Poll[20] Margin of error: ± 5.0% | September 17 – October 4, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 47% | Bernie Sanders 35% | Martin O'Malley 1% Jim Webb 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Other 2% Undecided 14% |
Hillary Clinton 40% | Bernie Sanders 31% | Joe Biden 15% Martin O'Malley 1% Lincoln Chafee 0% Jim Webb 1% Other 2% Undecided 12% | ||
| USC/LA Times[21] Margin of error: ± 3.6% | August 29 – September 8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 42% | Bernie Sanders 26% | Other/NA 16% Undecided 16% |
Hillary Clinton 39% | Bernie Sanders 23% | Joe Biden 11% Other/NA 11% Undecided 16% | ||
| Field Poll[22] Margin of error: ± 7.0% | April 23 – May 16, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 53% | Elizabeth Warren 13% | Joe Biden 6% Bernie Sanders 5% Jim Webb 1% Martin O'Malley 0% Lincoln Chafee 0% Undecided/other 22% |
| Emerson College[23] Margin of error: ± ? | April 2–8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 56% | Elizabeth Warren 11% | Joe Biden 8% Bernie Sanders 3% Martin O'Malley 2% Jim Webb 1% Andrew Cuomo 0% Other 2% Undecided 17% |
| Field Poll [24] Margin of error: ± 5% | January 26 – February 16, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 59% | Elizabeth Warren 17% | Joe Biden 9% Bernie Sanders 6% Jim Webb 2% Others <0.5% Undecided 7% |
Results[edit]
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
Hillary Clinton | 2,745,302 | 53.07% | 254 | 66 | 320 |
Bernie Sanders | 2,381,722 | 46.04% | 221 | 0 | 221 |
Willie Wilson | 12,014 | 0.23% | |||
| Michael Steinberg | 10,880 | 0.21% | |||
Roque De La Fuente | 8,453 | 0.16% | |||
| Henry Hewes | 7,743 | 0.15% | |||
Keith Judd | 7,201 | 0.14% | |||
| Write-in | 23 | 0.00% | |||
| Uncommitted | N/A | 10 | 10 | ||
| Total | 5,173,338 | 100% | 475 | 76 | 551 |
| Source: California Secretary of State - Presidential Primary Election Statement of Votes The Green Papers | |||||
Results by county[edit]
| County[25] | Clinton | % | Sanders | % | Others | % | Totals | Turnout (%) | Margin | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | 164,889 | 51.5% | 153,955 | 48.0% | 1,577 | 0.5% | 320,421 | 10,934 | 3.4% | |
| Alpine | 113 | 44.8% | 137 | 54.4% | 2 | 0.8% | 252 | 24 | 9.5% | |
| Amador | 2,516 | 50.4% | 2,386 | 47.8% | 88 | 1.8% | 4,990 | 130 | 2.6% | |
| Butte | 11,766 | 37.0% | 19,739 | 62.0% | 315 | 1.0% | 31,820 | 7,973 | 25.1% | |
| Calaveras | 2,971 | 49.5% | 2,914 | 48.5% | 123 | 2.0% | 6,008 | 57 | 0.9% | |
| Colusa | 835 | 49.3% | 809 | 47.8% | 48 | 2.8% | 1,692 | 26 | 1.5% | |
| Contra Costa | 103,333 | 56.7% | 77,862 | 42.7% | 1,082 | 0.6% | 182,277 | 25,471 | 14.0% | |
| Del Norte | 1,119 | 40.4% | 1,598 | 57.6% | 55 | 2.0% | 2,772 | 479 | 17.3% | |
| El Dorado | 12,492 | 49.1% | 12,620 | 49.6% | 313 | 1.2% | 25,425 | 128 | 0.5% | |
| Fresno | 45,436 | 56.0% | 34,663 | 42.7% | 998 | 1.2% | 81,097 | 10,773 | 13.3% | |
| Glenn | 911 | 46.8% | 1,003 | 51.5% | 34 | 1.7% | 1,948 | 92 | 4.7% | |
| Humboldt | 8,135 | 28.7% | 19,928 | 70.4% | 240 | 0.8% | 28,303 | 11,793 | 41.7% | |
| Imperial | 9,843 | 65.0% | 5,111 | 33.7% | 190 | 1.3% | 15,144 | 4,732 | 31.2% | |
| Inyo | 1,001 | 42.5% | 1,313 | 55.7% | 44 | 1.9% | 2,358 | 312 | 13.2% | |
| Kern | 28,806 | 54.1% | 23,374 | 43.9% | 1,054 | 2.0% | 53,234 | 5,432 | 10.2% | |
| Kings | 4,150 | 57.8% | 2,869 | 39.9% | 165 | 2.3% | 7,184 | 1,281 | 17.8% | |
| Lake | 3,988 | 42.7% | 5,195 | 55.7% | 148 | 1.6% | 9,331 | 1,207 | 12.9% | |
| Lassen | 812 | 42.6% | 1,023 | 53.7% | 70 | 3.7% | 1,905 | 211 | 11.1% | |
| Los Angeles | 780,013 | 54.4% | 639,886 | 44.6% | 14,768 | 1.0% | 1,434,667 | 140,127 | 9.8% | |
| Madera | 5,808 | 53.1% | 4,852 | 44.4% | 279 | 2.6% | 10,939 | 956 | 8.7% | |
| Marin | 43,283 | 56.4% | 33,214 | 43.3% | 260 | 0.3% | 76,757 | 10,069 | 13.1% | |
| Mariposa | 1,102 | 44.1% | 1,355 | 54.2% | 44 | 1.8% | 2,501 | 253 | 10.1% | |
| Mendocino | 6,048 | 32.8% | 12,259 | 66.5% | 119 | 0.6% | 18,426 | 6,211 | 33.7% | |
| Merced | 10,839 | 53.0% | 9,273 | 45.3% | 339 | 1.7% | 20,451 | 1,566 | 7.7% | |
| Modoc | 281 | 42.3% | 349 | 52.5% | 35 | 5.3% | 665 | 68 | 10.2% | |
| Mono | 799 | 43.3% | 1,038 | 56.2% | 10 | 0.5% | 1,847 | 239 | 12.9% | |
| Monterey | 29,730 | 52.8% | 26,073 | 46.3% | 513 | 0.9% | 56,316 | 3,657 | 6.5% | |
| Napa | 13,583 | 53.4% | 11,682 | 45.9% | 190 | 0.7% | 25,455 | 1,901 | 7.5% | |
| Nevada | 8,175 | 36.9% | 13,827 | 62.4% | 148 | 0.7% | 22,150 | 5,652 | 25.5% | |
| Orange | 171,593 | 51.9% | 156,235 | 47.3% | 2,767 | 0.8% | 330,595 | 15,358 | 4.6% | |
| Placer | 25,249 | 54.1% | 20,916 | 44.8% | 490 | 1.1% | 46,655 | 4,333 | 9.3% | |
| Plumas | 1,211 | 44.1% | 1,475 | 53.7% | 62 | 2.3% | 2,748 | 264 | 9.6% | |
| Riverside | 112,526 | 56.1% | 85,918 | 42.8% | 2,197 | 1.1% | 200,641 | 26,608 | 13.3% | |
| Sacramento | 109,898 | 54.6% | 89,428 | 44.4% | 1,933 | 1.0% | 201,259 | 20,470 | 10.2% | |
| San Benito | 4,112 | 54.3% | 3,380 | 44.6% | 83 | 1.1% | 7,575 | 732 | 9.7% | |
| San Bernardino | 96,076 | 54.6% | 77,706 | 44.2% | 2,194 | 1.2% | 175,976 | 18,370 | 10.4% | |
| San Diego | 215,655 | 51.6% | 199,716 | 47.7% | 2,909 | 0.7% | 418,280 | 15,939 | 3.8% | |
| San Francisco | 116,359 | 53.6% | 99,594 | 45.9% | 961 | 0.4% | 216,914 | 16,765 | 7.7% | |
| San Joaquin | 38,212 | 56.5% | 28,523 | 42.2% | 879 | 1.3% | 67,614 | 9,689 | 14.3% | |
| San Luis Obispo | 21,637 | 46.7% | 24,379 | 52.6% | 346 | 0.7% | 46,362 | 2,742 | 5.9% | |
| San Mateo | 79,756 | 58.7% | 55,367 | 40.8% | 705 | 0.5% | 135,828 | 24,389 | 18.0% | |
| Santa Barbara | 31,927 | 46.9% | 35,717 | 52.4% | 474 | 0.7% | 68,118 | 3,790 | 5.6% | |
| Santa Clara | 159,480 | 57.5% | 116,193 | 41.9% | 1,840 | 0.7% | 277,513 | 43,287 | 15.6% | |
| Santa Cruz | 29,520 | 40.5% | 42,940 | 59.0% | 377 | 0.5% | 72,837 | 13,420 | 18.4% | |
| Shasta | 7,809 | 45.4% | 9,026 | 52.4% | 377 | 2.2% | 17,212 | 1,217 | 7.1% | |
| Sierra | 224 | 42.5% | 297 | 56.4% | 6 | 1.1% | 527 | 73 | 13.9% | |
| Siskiyou | 2,466 | 38.0% | 3,894 | 60.0% | 126 | 1.9% | 6,486 | 1,428 | 22.0% | |
| Solano | 34,231 | 55.3% | 27,122 | 43.8% | 527 | 0.9% | 61,880 | 7,109 | 11.5% | |
| Sonoma | 55,595 | 47.3% | 61,167 | 52.0% | 803 | 0.7% | 117,565 | 5,572 | 4.7% | |
| Stanislaus | 24,359 | 51.2% | 22,384 | 47.1% | 798 | 1.7% | 47,541 | 1,975 | 4.2% | |
| Sutter | 4,023 | 52.7% | 3,463 | 45.4% | 146 | 1.9% | 7,632 | 560 | 7.3% | |
| Tehama | 2,372 | 45.9% | 2,655 | 51.4% | 136 | 2.6% | 5,163 | 283 | 5.5% | |
| Trinity | 672 | 35.1% | 1,211 | 63.3% | 31 | 1.6% | 1,914 | 539 | 28.2% | |
| Tulare | 13,472 | 54.4% | 10,834 | 43.7% | 468 | 1.9% | 24,774 | 2,638 | 10.6% | |
| Tuolumne | 3,433 | 48.2% | 3,592 | 50.5% | 91 | 1.3% | 7,116 | 159 | 2.2% | |
| Ventura | 60,615 | 51.2% | 56,751 | 47.9% | 1,015 | 0.9% | 118,381 | 3,864 | 3.3% | |
| Yolo | 17,655 | 48.2% | 18,761 | 51.3% | 190 | 0.5% | 36,606 | 1,106 | 3.0% | |
| Yuba | 2,388 | 45.1% | 2,771 | 52.4% | 132 | 2.5% | 5,291 | 383 | 7.2% | |
| Total | 2,745,302 | 53.1% | 2,381,722 | 46.0% | 46,314 | 0.9% | 5,173,338 | 363,580 | 7.0% |
Analysis[edit]
Clinton won the California primary, after Bernie Sanders had made a very serious play for the state and barnstormed it before election day. Sanders was significantly behind in the overall race by the time California voted (June 7, 2016), and it would have been hard for him to win the nomination by that point unless he persuaded Superdelegates to switch their support to him at the convention. He hoped a California win would assist in that effort. He rallied large numbers of supporters across the state, but in the end his barnstorming did not prevail, with Clinton winning by seven points (more than most polls predicted). She won in all the major cities: Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Los Angeles, and San Diego; Sanders did well in the northernmost counties bordering Oregon where he had won the month before.[26] After Sanders' disappointing loss, Rose Kapolczynski, an advisor to Barbara Boxer, described the primary results: "You can have a lot of excitement and a compelling message and inspire people, but if they don’t show up to vote, it doesn’t matter. Sanders did have very impressive rallies all over the state, but were those people turning around and calling their neighbors and taking action to get other people to vote for Sanders?"[27]
For her part, Clinton had campaigned aggressively for the state's diverse electorate, with Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, and Chinese-language ads being aired by her campaign on the airwaves and on TV to make a play for both Latino and Asian American voters.[28]
Clinton was declared the presumptive winner of the democratic nomination by multiple news outlets on June 6, the night before the California primary.[29][30][31][32] She had previously not had enough delegates, and the declaration that she had clinched the nomination was based on a survey of superdelegates, not on votes. This announcement being made the night before a primary as large as California's was considered controversial, and may or may not have affected voter turnout the next day.[33]
References[edit]
^ "California Secretary of State - Semi-Official Primary Results". ca.gov. Archived from the original on 2016-06-08. Retrieved 2016-06-17..mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"""""""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-gray-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-red-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration{color:#555}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration span{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg/12px-Wikisource-logo.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output code.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:inherit;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#33aa33;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration,.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-right{padding-right:0.2em}
^ "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders down to the wire in California". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved 2016-06-07.
^ "California 2016 Primary Forecasts". ARG. Retrieved June 7, 2016.
^ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire". scribd.com. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
^ "California's Democratic Presidential Primary Tightening. Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Declines to Two Points. State Republicans Appear to Be Warming to Trump's Candidacy". Retrieved June 2, 2016.
^ "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire". scribd.com. Retrieved June 3, 2016.
^ "Hillary Clinton poised to defeat Bernie Sanders in California's presidential primary, SurveyUSA poll shows". ABC News. Retrieved 23 May 2016.
^ "Californians and Their Government May 2016 Full Crosstabs – Likely Voters Only" (PDF). PPIC Statewide Survey. Retrieved 26 May 2016.
^ "Poll: Clinton up 13 over Sanders in Calif". Retrieved May 31, 2016.
^ "Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary April 28-May 1, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved May 4, 2016.
^ "California voters resigned to vote for Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, SurveyUSA poll shows". Retrieved May 2, 2016.
^ "Fox News Poll: California Presidential Primaries". Fox News. April 22, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.
^ "Poll: Clinton keeps New York edge, leads Sanders in California". Retrieved 2016-04-17.
^ "California Democratic Primary Polling". Retrieved 2016-04-20.
^ "Sanders gaining on Clinton in California poll". Retrieved 2016-04-08.
^ In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have 'Extremely Negative' View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer's Seat; CA's Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016: (Report). SurveyUSA. 2016-04-05. Retrieved 2016-04-05.
^ "As California primary nears, even Sanders supporters are uniting behind Clinton and against a common enemy: Trump". Retrieved 2016-03-29.
^ "Californians and Their Government - March 2016 Full Crosstabs - Likely Voters Only" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-03-24.
^ DiCamillo, Mark (6 January 2016). "Clinton Maintains 11-Point Lead Over Sanders Among Likely Voters in California's Democratic Presidential Primary. Both Candidates Are Highly Regarded" (PDF). Field Research Corporation. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-01-16. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
^ "Sanders gains on Clinton". sacbee.com. Retrieved 2015-10-07.
^ "Trump and Clinton lead presidential contenders in California". news.usc.edu/. Retrieved 2015-09-13.
^ "Field Poll Online" (PDF). field.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-05-28. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
^ "2016 California Presidential Republican Primary – Bush 17%, Walker 17%". Emerson College. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-02-20. Retrieved 2016-09-23.CS1 maint: Archived copy as title (link)
^ http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-primary/26-presidential-formatted.pdf
^ "California Primary Election Results". Retrieved 2016-08-07.
^ Times, Los Angeles. "How Hillary Clinton won California". latimes.com. Retrieved 2016-08-07.
^ "Hillary Clinton Campaign Launches New Asian American Ads". AAPI for Hillary. 2016-05-27. Retrieved 2016-08-31.
^ "AP count: Clinton has delegates to win Democratic nomination". ap.org.
^ "Clinton clinches Democratic nomination". politico.com.
^ Bump, Philip (6 June 2016). "Analysis - Hillary Clinton just clinched the Democratic nomination. Here's the math behind it" – via www.washingtonpost.com.
^ "Hillary Clinton Has Clinched Democratic Nomination, Survey Reports". 6 June 2016 – via NYTimes.com.
^ "No one wanted Hillary Clinton to win this way". msnbc.com.
Categories:
- 2016 United States Democratic presidential primaries by state
- 2016 California elections
- California Democratic primaries
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