2004 United States presidential election in California

United States presidential election in California, 2004
	; ;
; Kerry; ; ; 40-50%; ; 50-60%; ; 60-70%; ; 70-80%; ; 80-90%; ; ;	; Bush; ; ; 50-60%; ; 60-70%; ; 70-80%; ; ;
; President before election; George W. Bush; Republican; ;	; Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican; ;

The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republicans have not taken California's electoral votes since George H.W. Bush's victory in 1988 against Michael Dukakis.

As of the 2016 presidential election^[update], this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate received more than 40% of the vote in California and where the margin of victory was in single digits, as the state swung hard toward the Democratic Party in the following election. Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win the following counties in a presidential election: Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus, and Ventura. This also remains the last presidential election that a Republican won more than a million votes in Los Angeles County.

Primaries[edit]

California Democratic primary, 2004

California Republican primary, 2004

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat

Associated Press: Solid Kerry

CNN: Kerry

Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat

Newsweek: Solid Kerry

New York Times: Solid Kerry

Rasmussen Reports: Kerry

Research 2000: Solid Kerry

Washington Post: Kerry

Washington Times: Solid Kerry

Zogby International: Kerry

Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling[edit]

Kerry won every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.^[2]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.^[3] Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004. ^[4]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.^[5]^[6]

Analysis[edit]

California was once a Republican stronghold, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time the state was won by a Republican candidate was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.

In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Kern, and Fresno counties, all of which (except San Diego) Bush won by double digit margins. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States. Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor.^[7] These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.

Nonetheless, this proved the first time the Democratic Party had won remote Alpine County since 1936 and only the third in that county’s 140-year electoral history, and the first time the Democratic nominee carried neighboring Mono County since 1940, and only the seventh since that county was formed in 1861. Kerry countered Bush's improved performance in Southern California with large swings towards the Democratic Party in Northern California, including the Bay Area, where he won over 70% of the vote in Alameda, Marin, Santa Cruz, and San Francisco counties, winning over 80% in the latter.

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in California, 2004^[8]^[9]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Forbes Kerry	6,745,485	54.31%	55
	Republican	George Walker Bush (Incumbent)	5,509,826	44.36%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	50,165	0.40%	0
	Green	David Cobb	40,771	0.33%	0
	Peace and Freedom	Leonard Peltier	27,607	0.22%	0
	American Independent	Michael Peroutka	26,645	0.21%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader (write-in)	20,714	0.17%	0
	Independent	John Joseph Kennedy (write-in)	82	0.00%	0
	Independent	John Parker (write-in)	49	0.00%	0
	Independent	James Alexander-Pace (write-in)	8	0.00%	0
	Independent	Anthony Jabin (write-in)	1	0.00%	0
Invalid or blank votes			169,510
Totals			12,421,353	100.00%	55
Voter turnout (Voting Age voters)					74.7%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

County	Kerry	Votes	Bush (Incumbent)	Votes	Others	Votes
San Francisco	83.02%	296,772	15.21%	54,355	1.77%	6,338
Alameda	75.18%	422,585	23.29%	130,911	1.53%	8,590
Marin	73.21%	99,070	25.40%	34,378	1.39%	1,877
Santa Cruz	72.98%	89,102	24.86%	30,354	2.15%	2,628
San Mateo	69.48%	197,922	29.25%	83,315	1.27%	3,620
Sonoma	67.18%	148,261	30.90%	68,204	1.91%	4,225
Santa Clara	63.94%	386,100	34.63%	209,094	1.43%	8,622
Mendocino	63.45%	24,385	33.71%	12,955	2.83%	1,089
Los Angeles	63.10%	1,907,736	35.60%	1,076,225	1.30%	39,319
Contra Costa	62.28%	257,254	36.46%	150,608	1.25%	5,166
Monterey	60.36%	75,241	38.38%	47,838	1.26%	1,574
Napa	59.48%	33,666	38.97%	22,059	1.54%	874
Yolo	59.34%	42,885	38.75%	28,005	1.91%	1,379
Humboldt	57.66%	37,988	39.03%	25,714	3.31%	2,184
Solano	57.17%	85,096	41.86%	62,301	0.97%	1,440
Alpine	53.21%	373	44.37%	311	2.43%	17
Santa Barbara	53.17%	90,314	45.22%	76,806	1.61%	2,741
Lake	53.16%	13,141	44.88%	11,093	1.96%	485
San Benito	52.61%	9,851	46.45%	8,698	0.94%	176
Imperial	52.41%	17,964	46.36%	15,890	1.23%	420
Sacramento	49.52%	236,657	49.29%	235,539	1.19%	5,670
Mono	49.23%	2,628	49.10%	2,621	1.67%	89
Ventura	47.53%	148,859	51.19%	160,314	1.28%	4,020
San Diego	46.39%	526,437	52.52%	596,033	1.09%	12,378
San Joaquin	45.83%	87,012	53.18%	100,978	0.99%	1,874
San Luis Obispo	45.52%	58,742	52.69%	67,995	1.79%	2,313
Nevada	44.92%	24,220	53.39%	28,790	1.69%	910
Butte	44.14%	42,448	53.73%	51,662	2.13%	2,047
San Bernardino	43.57%	227,789	55.34%	289,306	1.09%	5,682
Trinity	42.71%	2,782	54.66%	3,560	2.63%	171
Merced	42.26%	24,491	56.54%	32,773	1.20%	696
Fresno	41.68%	103,154	57.38%	141,988	0.94%	2,321
Del Norte	41.31%	3,892	56.85%	5,356	1.84%	173
Riverside	41.04%	228,806	57.83%	322,473	1.13%	6,300
Stanislaus	40.40%	58,829	58.65%	85,407	0.95%	1,388
Orange	38.98%	419,239	59.68%	641,832	1.33%	14,328
Inyo	38.88%	3,350	59.09%	5,091	2.03%	175
Tuolumne	38.51%	10,104	60.02%	15,745	1.47%	386
Siskiyou	37.71%	7,880	60.64%	12,673	1.66%	346
Mariposa	37.55%	3,251	60.23%	5,215	2.22%	192
El Dorado	37.33%	32,242	61.23%	52,878	1.44%	1,244
Calaveras	37.09%	8,286	60.87%	13,601	2.04%	456
Plumas	36.90%	4,129	61.71%	6,905	1.39%	156
Amador	36.56%	6,541	62.08%	11,107	1.36%	243
Placer	36.26%	55,573	62.61%	95,969	1.13%	1,736
Madera	34.70%	13,481	64.02%	24,871	1.28%	498
Kings	33.74%	10,833	65.41%	21,003	0.85%	274
Sierra	33.16%	646	64.12%	1,249	2.72%	53
Tulare	32.87%	32,494	66.15%	65,399	0.98%	967
Kern	32.49%	68,603	66.49%	140,417	1.02%	2,154
Tehama	32.01%	7,504	66.42%	15,572	1.57%	368
Sutter	31.85%	9,602	67.19%	20,254	0.96%	289
Glenn	31.68%	2,995	66.72%	6,308	1.60%	151
Yuba	31.55%	5,687	67.00%	12,076	1.45%	261
Colusa	31.58%	1,947	67.17%	4,142	1.25%	77
Shasta	31.31%	24,339	67.22%	52,249	1.47%	1,143
Lassen	27.58%	3,158	70.97%	8,126	1.45%	166
Modoc	25.72%	1,149	72.42%	3,235	1.86%	83

By congressional district[edit]

Kerry won 31 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts, including 2 districts held by Democratic representatives.^[10]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	38%	60%	Mike Thompson
2nd	62%	37%	Wally Herger
3rd	58%	41%	Doug Ose
3rd	58%	41%	Dan Lungren
4th	61%	37%	John Doolittle
5th	38%	61%	Bob Matsui
5th	38%	61%	Doris Matsui
6th	28%	70%	Lynn Woolsey
7th	32%	67%	George Miller
8th	14%	85%	Nancy Pelosi
9th	13%	86%	Barbara Lee
10th	40%	59%	Ellen Tauscher
11th	54%	45%	Richard Pombo
12th	27%	72%	Tom Lantos
13th	28%	71%	Pete Stark
14th	30%	68%	Anna Eshoo
15th	36%	63%	Mike Honda
16th	36%	63%	Zoe Lofgren
17th	33%	66%	Sam Farr
18th	50%	49%	Dennis Cardoza
19th	61%	38%	George Radanovich
20th	48%	51%	Cal Dooley
20th	48%	51%	Jim Costa
21st	65%	34%	Devin Nunes
22nd	68%	31%	Bill Thomas
23rd	40%	58%	Lois Capps
24th	56%	43%	Elton Gallegly
25th	59%	40%	Howard McKeon
26th	55%	44%	David Dreier
27th	39%	59%	Brad Sherman
28th	28%	71%	Howard Berman
29th	37%	61%	Adam Schiff
30th	33%	66%	Henry Waxman
31st	22%	77%	Xavier Becerra
32nd	37%	62%	Hilda Solis
33rd	16%	83%	Diane Watson
34th	30%	69%	Lucille Roybal-Allard
35th	20%	79%	Maxine Waters
36th	40%	59%	Jane Harman
37th	25%	74%	Juanita Millender-McDonald
38th	34%	65%	Grace Napolitano
39th	40%	59%	Linda Sánchez
40th	60%	39%	Ed Royce
41st	62%	37%	Jerry Lewis
42nd	62%	37%	Gary Miller
43rd	41%	58%	Joe Baca
44th	59%	40%	Ken Calvert
45th	56%	43%	Mary Bono Mack
46th	57%	42%	Dana Rohrabacher
47th	50%	49%	Loretta Sanchez
48th	58%	40%	Christopher Cox
48th	58%	40%	John Campbell
49th	63%	36%	Darrell Issa
50th	55%	44%	Brian Bilbray
51st	46%	53%	Bob Filner
52nd	61%	38%	Duncan Hunter
53rd	38%	61%	Susan Davis

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.^[11]

Robert H. Manley

Barbara Schraeger

Paul Johnson

Gary Simmons

Paul Batterson

Diana Madoshi

Kyriakos Tsakopoulos

Donald Linker

Paula Sandusky

Adam Woo

Chloe Drew

Karl Sliferv

Gary Prost

Joseph Cotchett

John Smith

George Marcus

Mark Hsu

Adele Bihn

Darrell Darling

Amarjit Dhaliwal

Rocco Davis

Kenneth Costa

Barbara Pyle

David Johnson

Andrew M. Siegel

Michael Carpenter

Lynda Von Husen

Randy Monroe

Lane M. Sherman

Moreen Blum

Yolanda Dyer

Paul I. Goldenberg

Lenore Wax

Mitch O'Farrell

Franklin A. Acevedo

Gwen Moore

Pedro Carillo

Karen Walters

Ted Lieu

Valerie McDonald

Marvin

Douglas E. Hitchcock

Barbara Kerr

Salvador Sanchez

Joe Baca, Jr.

Grant Gruber

James T. Ewing

Louise Giacoppe

James G. Bohm

Mark Lam

Chuck Lower

Susan Koehler

Mary Salas

Andrew Benjamin

Margaret Lawrence

References[edit]

^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW^{[permanent dead link]}

^ Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

^ George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President

^ John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President

^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN..mw-parser-output cite.citation{font-style:inherit}.mw-parser-output .citation q{quotes:"""""""'""'"}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-free a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/65/Lock-green.svg/9px-Lock-green.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-limited a,.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-registration a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/Lock-gray-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-gray-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .citation .cs1-lock-subscription a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Lock-red-alt-2.svg/9px-Lock-red-alt-2.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration{color:#555}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription span,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration span{border-bottom:1px dotted;cursor:help}.mw-parser-output .cs1-ws-icon a{background:url("//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4c/Wikisource-logo.svg/12px-Wikisource-logo.svg.png")no-repeat;background-position:right .1em center}.mw-parser-output code.cs1-code{color:inherit;background:inherit;border:inherit;padding:inherit}.mw-parser-output .cs1-hidden-error{display:none;font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-visible-error{font-size:100%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-maint{display:none;color:#33aa33;margin-left:0.3em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-subscription,.mw-parser-output .cs1-registration,.mw-parser-output .cs1-format{font-size:95%}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-left,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-left{padding-left:0.2em}.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-right,.mw-parser-output .cs1-kern-wl-right{padding-right:0.2em}

^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN.

^ Loughlin, Sean (September 1, 2004). "Schwarzenegger's star power dazzles delegates". CNN.

^ "President" (PDF). California Secretary of State. 2005-02-22. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-07-21. Retrieved 2008-07-09.

^ "Report of Registration as of October 18, 2004" (PDF). California Secretary of State. January 7, 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on July 10, 2008. Retrieved January 16, 2013.

^ Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008

^ U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page

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